By Seema Guha
India and Pakistan are blowing hot and cold and giving conflicting signals over resuming the stalled dialogue. But the truth is that neither country is at the moment interested in talks. This, despite the sound bites emanating from both sides.
Talk of peace is for the consumption of the US, EU and the rest of the international community. Today, everyone wants nations to engage with each other. This is particularly true for the two nuclear armed neighbours of South Asia. So to keep international pressure off, there are plenty of pious talk from both camps.
Initially when Nawaz Sharif first came to power after 2013 elections, he was almost desperate to improve ties with India. Pakistan and its army was in the dog house internationally. But now with the US troops reduced to a few thousands in Afghanistan, Pakistan has gradually bounced back to US focus. With the strategic space opening up in Afghanistan for the military, Paksitan’s good offices are needed to stabilise Afghanistan.
The US is turning to the Pakistan army to get the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table. They realise that unless the Taliban, who belong to the Pashtun tribe, is given a place in the future political arrangement in Kabul, there can be no peace in the region. Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. It is now being widely acknowledged that Pakistan remains a stake holder in the final political settlement in Afghanistan.
The Pakistan military had long believed in gaining strategic depth in Afghanistan, by ensuring a pro-Pakistan regime in Kabul. In fact, in the past Pakistan complained bitterly to the US and NATO about New Delhi’s move. Pakistan said that India would try to disturb Pakistan on its eastern borders as most of its forces were engaged in fighting terrorists in the border with Afghanistan. This argument convinced the US in the beginning
But as the US and Pakistan army began having their own problems, that argument was no longer taken seriously by the Americans. However, today all that has changed. With Karzai out of the way, the military is breathing easy.
The current President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani, unlike Karzai has excellent ties with Islamabad and Rawalpindi. He has visited Pakistan several times and both Nawaz Sharif and General Raheel Sharif have returned the favour. Ashraf Ghani took the unprecedented move of calling on General Sharif at his headquarters, during a visit to Pakistan. Talks with India is certainly not on top of Pakistan’s agenda now.
“India is not top priority for the army. They have their hands full with Afghanistan and India can wait. Improving trade with India can also wait,’’ Islamabad-based journalist Mariana Babar, who has long reported on India-Pakistan affairs said. Pakistani diplomats in Delhi tend to agree with this view. One diplomat, who did not wish to be identified candidly admitted that it was good that the dialogue with India was not happening just yet.
Ms Babar went on to say that Nawaz Sharif, who had always spoken of peace with India is also now not as enthusiastic.
“ Sharif too has his hands full and will not like to be see doing things differently,’’ she added.
The Pakistan army is also busy fighting the home grown Taliban. The attack on the young school children at an army school in Peshawar was the proverbial straw on the camel’s back, that made a reluctant army take on the Taliban .The army has naturally hardened its stand after that blow. So with its hands full, the military which dictates India policy is in no mood to devote to bilateral negotiations with New Delhi.
This also suits Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government does not wish to talk till Pakistan stops terror attacks. Last week’s terror strike in Kashmir made it clear that Rawalpindi has not turned off the terror tap.
The red lines drawn by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Pakistan’s parleys with moderate Kashmiri
separatists of the Hurrriyat Conference are firmly in place. Last year, the new government scrapped talks with Pakistan because its envoy Abdul Basit met with Kashmiri separatist Shabir Shah.
The message was simple. Islamabad had to stop consulting the Hurriyat Conference ahead of India-Pakistan talks, simply because they had no business to be involved in the bilateral dialogue. This is the new stand adopted by the Narendra Modi government, which after attacking the UPA incessantly for its soft foreign policy, has to show they are different.
Both countries are shadow boxing. The fuss over the Hurriyat Conference attending Pakistan’s national day function on Monday, is much ado about nothing. The separatists have been guests of the High Commission for over a decade. Their presence is neither here or there.
VK Singh, junior minister for foreign affairs also attended the reception, though he was grumpy and stayed for a very short time. His manners were out on display in the tweets that followed. All this may make for good television drama, but will not affect India-Pakistan tie.
One of the compulsions for Modi to initiate some movement on the Pakistan front, is his alliance partner in Kashmir. In the governance agreement between the BJP and the Peoples Democratic Party, talks with Pakistan was part of the agenda. The PDP had also insisted that New Delhi should reach out to the Hurriyat leaders, as they have the support of a majority of Kashmiris’.
So having made the initial move by sending his foreign secretary S Jaishankar to Islamabad, Modi is in no hurry to proceed further. Some movement on the India-Pakistan front can take place possibly before the SAARC summit scheduled for the last quarter of 2016 in Islamabad. Both sides will be ready by then.
source :newsroom post
