Litmus test of NDA and Mahagathbandhan start after few hours in Bihar

Janjivan Bureau
Patna: Today Second phase polling for Bihar assembly election on the border of Uttar Pradesh is crucial for both NDA and Mahagathbandhan,32 assembly constituencies that are largely rural. The BJP will be tenser in the second to fourth phases because it senses it is relatively weak in the first and fifth, where polarisation of Muslims and Yadavs can help the grand alliance. If the first two phases leave the BJP short of expectations, then even a sweep of the third and fourth (total 105 seats) might not be enough.
Of these 32 constituencies, 25 are rural and seven urban.The closeness of this region to UP, particularly the Varanasi connection, leaves the BJP optimistic that this phase is where it has its best chance. The stakes for the JD(U) and ally RJD are higher as they had won 21 seats in the 2010 polls while third partner Congress drew a blank. The BJP had won nine seats and two seats went to independents.
The second phase is crucial not only to the BJP, which is fighting 16 seats, but also for its allies HAM of Jitan Ram Manjhi (7 seats) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP (6 seats). This phase will be a test for Amit Shah’s experiment aiming to transfer the BJP’s loyal upper-caste Rajput and Bhumihar votes to its partners’ OBC and Mahadalit candidates, and vice versa. Kushwaha and his deputy Arun Kumar are MPs from Karakat and Jehanabad, part of this region.It is a prestige battle for Manjhi. This will show how effectively he can transfer the Mahadalit vote to the BJP. Again, Manjhi is contesting Imamganj against Speaker U N Choudhary as well as Makdumpur, where Lalu has striven to unite some 40,000 Yadav votes and 14,000 Muslim votes for his candidate Subedar Das, a Paswan. The BJP is trying to rally 30,000 Bhumihars behind Manjhi. Another challenge for Manjhi is in Kutumba; his son Praveen Kumar Suman is up against Rajesh Ram of the Congress.
In the grand alliance, the JD(U) and the RJD too are contesting 13 seats each. The Congress, contesting the remaining six seats, performed poorly last time but is hopeful of winning a couple. Former MPs Meira Kumar and Nikhil Kumar have lobbied to get tickets for their aides in Sasaram and Aurangabad.
The BJP came out with posters and banners on the development agenda to counter GA’s “caste and reservation” issue. The new slogans urge people to vote for change (Badaliye sarkar, badaliye Bihar) and the need to establish the same government in Bihar as in the centre for fast-track development (Vikas ki hogi tej rafter jab kendra-rajya mein ek sarkar).
Four of the BJP candidates — in Nokha, Dinara, Navinagar and Gaya City, seats coveted by state party leaders — have left many in Patna speculating which of them is close enough to PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to eventually become CM.
Dinara’s Rajendra Singh is an RSS veteran and some BJP members see “Manohar Lal Khattar” in him. He is contesting against minister Jai Kumar Singh in a battle of Rajputs. Rameshwar Chaurasia of “Paanwala” OBC caste is the candidate from Nokha. Shahnawaz Hussain reportedly declared Prem Kumar, Gaya candidate, as CM nominee but later denied his statement. Prem Kumar is a five-time MLA and belongs to an EBC caste, Kahar. Rajnath Singh has campaigned in Navinagar for Gopal Narayan Singh, a Rajput with an RSS background.
The second phase campaign also saw NDA sharpening attack on the “grand secular alliance” in the backdrop of a sting video that purportedly showed a minister accepting `4 lakh bribe. The Prime Minister flagged it at his rallies on October 12, a day after the damning video showed up on the birth anniversary of Jayaprakash Narayan.
The JD(U)’s 18 seats in 2010 was largely due to a fine knitting of Mahadalit and EBC votes with the BJP’s forward-class votes. With Manjhi having exited, the JD(U) will be anxious about how many Musahar votes it can retain. The JD(U) says “minus Manjhi but plus Yadavs” will bring victory in this phase.